Niobrara (Wyoming)- update until May 2016


Today I planned an update with more advanced analyses than I typically show. However, I still need about a week to get that right.

Instead, I’ve added a new state to my coverage area (8 now) : Wyoming! A significant portion of the Niobrara basin is located here.

The results are presented in the above interactive presentation, and here follows just a brief discussion. I’m showing all horizontal wells in Wyoming that started production since 2010.

Although smaller than Colorado, total oil production from horizontal wells still topped over 120 kbo/d early last year, after a very steep climb in just 5 years. But now activity levels have dropped significantly, and you can see the impact of that on the decline in oil production (and less so in gas). Last year about 270 horizontal wells were brought online, vs just 35 until May this year. The DUC count has not dropped significantly; you can see this in the “Well status” overview, when you select there only the “DUCs”.

It could be that I include some horizontal wells in formations that are not formally recognized as shale formations. If you happen to see that, I hope you’ll let me know.

I intend to keep Wyoming in future updates for the US as a whole, and may sometimes post an update on the Niobrara where I’ll then include production from Colorado & Wyoming.

Around Friday next week (Sep 30th), I also plan another update on the Eagle Ford.

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Wyoming OGCC (with great support!)

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items, and include or exclude categories.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

North Dakota – update until 2016-07


Total oil production in North Dakota increased by 2 kbo/d to 1029 kbo/d in July, after a drop of 20 kbo/d in the previous month. I only show the production from horizontal wells, and because conventional production is just 30 kbo/d in North Dakota, the total production shown here is a little lower than the official report. The trend is the same, and you can see the small uptick in July.

Several observations after a closer look at the report for July:

  • The 45 wells that started flowing in June, had an extraordinary good 2nd month of production in July. You can see this in the “Well quality” graphs, where I show the performance of wells since the beginning of 2015, grouped by the month in which they started. Especially the wells of Marathon and Whiting performed very well on average; Marathon had one well (Juanita USA 13-35H) that did much better than the rest of the pack, producing 2175 bo/d in July (Since 2005, only 3 other wells have topped that in a particular month, in ND).
  • The 45 wells that started flowing in May, also had a good start; quite a bit better than the averages in the months in the beginning of this year.
  • These factors, together with a somewhat smaller than typical decline in legacy production, caused the small uptick in July.
  • The DUC count hasn’t changed much since February, as can be seen in the “Well status” tab, when you select only the “2. DUCs” (or also incl. the “1. Spuds”).
  • EOG has shown the largest increase in production, since it started to complete wells again in the 2nd quarter of this year. This can be seen in the last tab (“Top companies”).

I now use the annual reports from the NDIC to adjust & correct the past production of wells. Typically, changes are not large, but for confidential wells this is useful, as only part of their production (that which is sold), is reported when in confidential status. The difference between the total oil production I report, and what the NDIC reports for these wells, is now < 0.01%.

Next week Friday (September 23rd), I plan a new post that contains several more advanced analyses.

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====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items, and include or exclude categories.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.