US - update until 2016-05
09 / 05 / 2016
Above you’ll find another interactive presentation on the oil & gas production in the major US shale basins. You can see the total oil & gas production from 61652 selected horizontal wells, that started flowing since 2003, up until May 2016. Total oil production from these wells reached 5.3 Gbo, while cumulative gas production was 42.6 Tcf.
Some findings from an analysis of the latest data:
- The decline in oil production accelerated in the 2nd quarter of this year. However, gas production made new highs in 2016 (by changing the “Product” to gas, you’ll see this).
- Oil production from wells that started production since the beginning of 2015 contributed for more than half to the oil production in May.
- As I have mentioned a couple of times earlier, but now show more directly, a significant development in the last few years has been that that average well productivity in the initial production phase (first 1-2 years) has risen, but that longer term performance has dropped, compared with earlier wells.
You can see this last finding in the “Well quality” tab, where I’ve selected the major oil basins, and wells that started to produce since 2003. Compared with the 2003-2009 wells, more recent wells have higher initial production on average, followed by a steeper decline, leading to an overall smaller total UR per well.
Important reasons for this are 1. completion techniques, 2. more wells are completed in basins that display faster declines (especially compared with the Bakken), and 3. that many more wells are being completed than in earlier years (> 100 times more in 2015 than in 2003, in my data).
I find it remarkable that this fact (reducing long term well productivity, measured in barrels of oil, despite gains in initial production) is very rarely mentioned, although the data is very clear in this regard. Important to note here is that there are major differences per basin/operator, which you can investigate by using the filters, and that I leave out well cost considerations.
A significant change in this update is that the production histories of wells in North Dakota have now been updated based on the annual production reports, released annually by the state (NDIC). In the past the production of especially confidential wells, of which only the data is only partially available, was not corrected once the actual data became available. Although the total deviation from actual production of the selected wells in the whole state, was only around 2%, this has now become much smaller (around 0.1%).
Coming Friday (September 9th), I plan another update on the Marcellus (PA).
A special thank you to Mike Shellman, who has helped me interpreting the Texas RRC data correctly.
After receiving several inquiries, I have now started to offer the data underlying these presentations. If you’re interested, you will find more information about this here.
Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months in Texas. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- DMR of North Dakota
- Colorado OGCC
- Texas RRC. Well profiles are estimated from well status & lease production data, as individual well production data is not provided.
- OCD in New Mexico
- BOGC of Montana
- DEP of Pennsylvania
The above presentation has many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items, and include or exclude categories.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.