Marcellus (PA) & Utica (OH) - update through September 2016
12 / 12 / 2016
This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data from all (8453) horizontal wells in Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2010, through September.
Gas production in 2016 has stayed within a narrow range, near 18 BCF/day, as the output from new wells covered the production decline from existing ones. Pennsylvania production data typically has some upward revisions, so we may eventually see a higher final production for September.
Oil production is not a large component in this basin, and, as you can see when you switch to oil (“product” selection in the top right), it has showed a drop of about 35% in 2016.
The graphs in the “Well quality” tab reveal that, on average, wells in the last couple of years have shown steady improvements.
From the Pennsylvania data it appears that there is also still a relatively large inventory of drilled, but uncompleted wells (see “Well status” tab).
The last tab shows that Chesapeake and Cabot are the largest operators in this basin.
The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This "Ultimate Return" overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, for all the wells that started production in a specific quarter. This view also makes clear the extent that improvements in well productivity are having on their path towards the ultimate return.
Whereas early 2010 wells are bound to hit a production rate of around 500 MCF/day after reaching a cumulative return of about 3 BCF, recent wells are likely to do so only after a far higher cumulative return (I would put a ballpark estimate at 5-7 BCF).
The next view ("Productivity ranking") shows that of the main operators, Cabot has an average well productivity well ahead of the others. By clicking on the bar behind "Cabot", you'll see that all of its wells are located in the prolific North East of Pennsylvania (Susquehanna county).
For a more detailed description of these new overviews, please visit the first version of this advanced presentation for ND available here.
Coming Wednesday (Dec 14th), I’ve planned another update on North Dakota, followed by a post on all covered US states on Friday.
For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
The above presentation has many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items, and include or exclude categories.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.