North Dakota - update through October 2016
12 / 13 / 2016
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all (11998) horizontal wells in North Dakota since 2005, through October.
Taking many by surprise (the EIA included), oil production in North Dakota rose in October with 70+ kbo/d from the previous month. This was the largest month-on-month increase in the history of North Dakota.
This happened despite that in October 51 new horizontal wells started production, versus 73 in September. These 73 September wells however, had an excellent 2nd month; on par with the 45 wells that started in June, which caused the uptick earlier in July. Besides that, far fewer wells were shut-in: the average downtime of all wells was 3.2 days in September, vs 2.0 days in October (non-confidential wells).
In the “Well quality” tab you can see in the top graph that wells starting in 2016 are peaking higher in the first couple of months.
The last tab (“Top operators”) shows that Whiting and Continental Resources contributed a significant part to the production increase in October.
The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between oil production rates, and cumulative oil production, for all the wells that started production in a specific month.
By displaying the average well of each month in the last 12 years, too much details are shown in this graph. However, I hope it helps in getting a rough picture on how all these wells move over time towards their ultimate return, and how much this return roughly could be.
If you click (or tab) on a month in the legend on the right side, the performance of the wells that started flowing in that month will be highlighted in the chart.
You can see that the (small number of) early 2005 wells started with a lower initial production rate, but kept those rates for longer than later wells. The two short lines in the top left of the chart show the good performance of the June and (just left of it) the September 2016 wells.
Both groups of wells reached about 700 bo/d in their best calendar month. This start is promising, but it’s too early to say how these wells will behave after the initial flush production.
If you deselect (using the “Year of first flow” selection) the 2005 wells, and click “apply”, you’ll get a better view on how recent wells are behaving in the top left corner of the chart.
For a more detailed description of these new overviews, please visit the first version of this advanced presentation for ND available here.
[Update] I’ve looked a little closer at the data, and have shared in the forum a few more observations. You can view these if you click here.
Coming Friday (Dec 16th), I’ve planned another update on all the US states that I cover.
For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- DMR of North Dakota
The above presentation has many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items, and include or exclude categories.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.