Permian - update through September 2016
01 / 05 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 10323 selected horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) through September.
This total production overview shows how oil production has increased in the Permian over the last couple of years. In 2016 this growth has slowed, but not reversed, like in the other basins. The apparent drop in September is caused by missing new well data; once revisions come in I estimate that also in September production has grown somewhat.
I’ve selected to show this production by the quarter in which wells started production, as it visualizes the underlying decline in a bit more detail.
As noted in my previous Permian update, if you switch to gas (using the “product” selection in the top right), you’ll see that gas production has risen faster than oil production in 2016.
In the “Well quality” overview, we can see the average production rate of all these wells over time, grouped by the year in which they started. The number of new completions in the first 3 quarters of 2016 was about 1/3rd lower than in the same period of 2015. The average well performance has increased, as you can see in these graphs. Part of this improvement was caused by reduced drilling in the fringes, as can be seen in the lower performance improvements if you check individual counties.
The “Well status” overview shows how the number of new completions has slowed down during the past 2 years. This slowdown was clearly less steep than in the Eagle Ford, and the Bakken. I attribute the apparent drop in completions in September to incomplete data.
The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This first overview shows how all these horizontal wells progress towards their ultimate recovery, as their production rate slows down. The wells are grouped by the quarter in which they started production (“first flow”). The improvements in especially initial production during the last few years are clearly visible here.
Given the regular behavior of these wells, I belief that this overview allows one to make reasonable estimates of ultimate recovery for these wells. By switching to gas, the same can be done for ultimate gas recovery as well.
More overviews are available here if you want to explore the production and well productivity in this basin in more depth.
Coming Monday I will have another update on the Niobrara.
Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months in Texas.
For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. I’ve estimated individual well production from well status & lease production data, as these are otherwise not provided. Because of these estimations, I recommend looking at larger samples (>50 wells) before drawing conclusions. About 7% of the horizontal Permian wells in Texas are excluded, as these were mixed with too many vertical wells on a lease, making reasonable well profile estimations impossible. I’ve no spud, DUC, or plugging information on wells & DUCs in Texas, so these statuses are unavailable. Detailed location data is available for all New Mexico wells, and for almost 95% of the Texan wells displayed; the remaining wells are shown near the center of the county in which they are located. Formation data in Texas is only available on lease level; therefore in cases where wells on the same lease are drilled in different formations, this information is not accurate.
- OCD in New Mexico. Accurate individual well production data is provided.
The above presentation has many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.