Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through September 2016

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 5759 selected horizontal wells in the Niobrara region (Colorado & Wyoming) through September.

Total oil production from this region appears to have stabilized in recent months at a level of just below 350k bo/d, similar to the level seen at the end of 2014.

As you can see on the map (first tab, “Where?”), most of this production is centered around 2 areas: Weld county in Colorado, and in the south of Campbell county, Wyoming.

These two areas have responded very differently to the collapse in oil price; completion activity in Wyoming has dropped by about 75% in the first 9 months of 2016, compared with the same period in 2015. Oil production from these wells in Wyoming was in September just above 70k bo/d, having fallen from a top of over 120k bo/d in April 2015. In Colorado however, total oil production has barely moved since early 2015, as completions dropped by around 1/3rd instead.

The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

 

 

This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells progress towards their ultimate recovery, while declining over time. The wells are grouped by the quarter in which they started production (“first flow”).

While you can see that, on average, these profiles have not changed by much in the last 2 years, if you switch to gas (using the “product” selection in the top right), you’ll notice that here the changes have been significant, as newer wells are on a path to recover more gas.

The last tab (“Gas Oil ratio”), shows the rapid increase of the gas/oil ratio, especially since early 2015.

Coming Wednesday I will have another update on all the 8 states I cover in the US.

Production data is subject to revisions.

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
  • Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
  • FracFocus.org

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

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