Permian - update through October 2016
02 / 06 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 10461 selected horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) through October.
Despite an apparent drop in oil production in September and October 2016, I think that after revisions come in, we will see an increase in oil production during these months.
In the “Well quality” overview, we can see the average production rate of all these horizontal wells over time, grouped by the year in which they started production. You’ll notice that well productivity has increased every year, since 2013, and 2016 was no exception.
In the “Well status” overview the top graph shows that despite these improvements, the number of completions has slowly (relative to other oil basins) come down, since the end of 2014. Texas data for September and October appears to be incomplete; if you select the basin “Permian (NM)”, you’ll see that the number of completions was steady in New Mexico, during 2016.
Oil production of the top 5 operators can be seen in the last tab (“Top operators”). The rise in oil production of Pioneer Natural Resources over the last couple of years has been impressive. Also here, I suspect that the drop in the last 2 months is due to incomplete RRC data, on which we should get more clarity in the coming months.
The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells progress towards their ultimate recovery, as their production rate slows down over time. Also this view shows clear improvements in well productivity in the last view years. If you show production here by “Quarter of first flow”, you’ll notice that this trend has continued in 2016.
Gas production is even faster on the rise, which will be visible if you change the “Product” selection to “Gas”.
The second overview (“Cumulative production ranking”) shows that Concho Resources has produced by far the most oil in this basin, using horizontal wells. By clicking on this operator, you’ll see exactly where its wells are located.
Coming Thursday I will have another update on the 8 states I cover in the US. Next week, I’ve planned an update on North Dakota, followed by a new “Projections” post.
Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months in Texas. Note that a significant part of oil production in the Permian comes from vertical wells, which are excluded here.
For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. I’ve estimated individual well production from well status & lease production data, as these are otherwise not provided. Because of these estimations, I recommend looking at larger samples (>50 wells) before drawing conclusions. About 7% of the horizontal Permian wells in Texas are excluded, as these were mixed with too many vertical wells on a lease, making reasonable well profile estimations impossible. I’ve no spud, DUC, or plugging information on wells in Texas, so these statuses are unavailable. Detailed location data is available for all New Mexico wells, and for almost 95% of the Texan wells displayed; the remaining wells are shown near the center of the county in which they are located. Formation data in Texas is only available on lease level; therefore in cases where wells on the same lease are drilled in different formations, this information is not accurate.
- OCD in New Mexico. Accurate individual well production data is provided.
The above presentation has many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.