US - update through October 2016
02 / 09 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 66689 horizontal wells in 8 US states, through October. Ohio production through September is included, but deselected in most views. Cumulative oil production from these wells reached 6.08 Gbo, while cumulative gas production topped 50.3 TCF.
October oil production showed the first increase in 2016, as a major rise in North Dakota more than compensated an overall small decline in the other basins (before revisions). Almost 1/3rd of production in October came from wells that started in 2016. Gas production declined, and was in October at a similar level as at the end of 2014.
The “Well quality” tab gives an overview of how the production profiles of all these wells has changed over the years. I’ve selected the major oil basins here, and as you see, the average horizontal well that started in 2016 did again a little better in initial production, but follows a similar production profile as earlier wells. This is the result of different trends in these basins, as I’ve shown in the individual posts. Of note is also that through October 2016, just half the number of wells were started (3780), compared with a year earlier (7418).
We can see in the last tab (“Top operators”) that part of the growth in oil production in October came from EOG and Continental Resources.
The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview provides another view on how production profiles have changed over the past few years.
The thickness of the curves in an indication for the number of wells that started in that period. The major oil basins are selected, using the “Basin” selection.
Production profiles appear to be quite predictable, on average, so this should help in figuring out a likely range of ultimate oil (or gas) recovery. Using the “Operator (current)” selection at the bottom, you can see how different operators are faring in this regard. If you’re interested in more recent developments, use the “Show wells by” selection at the top to select “Quarter (or month) of first flow”.
In the next tab (“Cumulative production ranking”), you can see the cumulative oil (and gas) production for all operators, and where their wells are located. Just click on a name to see the details.
The 3rd tab (“Well status map”) is helpful if you would like to know the location of wells, based on their status; e.g. where new wells started production, or where the DUCs are located. Note that for Texas certain well statuses are not available.
Next week I will post another update on North Dakota, followed by a new “Projections” post.
Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months in Texas. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
- Montana Board of Oil and Gas
- New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
- North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
- Texas Railroad Commission. I’ve estimated individual well production from well status & lease production data, as these are otherwise not provided. Because of this, I recommend looking at larger samples (>50 wells) before drawing conclusions. About 7% of the horizontal Permian wells in Texas are excluded, as these were mixed with too many vertical wells on a lease, making reasonable well profile estimations impossible. Formation data in Texas is only available on lease level; therefore in cases where wells on the same lease are drilled into different formations, this information is not accurate.
- Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
The above presentation has many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.