Permian - update through March 2017
07 / 06 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 11047 selected horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2009/2010, through March 2017.
Output in the Permian from horizontal wells has kept on rising in the past two years, and has overtaken production from the Eagle Ford and the Bakken. Production data for new wells in Texas for the 1st quarter is still very incomplete, and therefore I expect that after revisions we will see that this growth has continued strongly in the 1st quarter of 2017 as well.
Also in this basin the length of the horizontal laterals, and the proppant volumes used to break the formation open, have increased significantly over the past 5 years. In New Mexico, the average length of these laterals increased with roughly 20%, from 4.5k feet in 2011, to more than a mile recently. In the Texas portion of the Permian, the increase was even larger, starting with a similar length, but now topping 7k feet on average.
Over the same period, proppant volumes grew fourfold, and are now on average 11 million pound in New Mexico, and 14 million pound in Texas, or about 2000 pound per lateral feet.
As usual, in the “Well quality” tab we can see the effect of these changes in well design. Initial productivity is higher, but production rates also stay elevated for longer, and are approaching a similar profile as the one for Bakken wells.
In the “Well status” tab, the incompleteness of the data is demonstrated again by the apparent drop in completions in the first quarter.
The last tab (“Top operators”) shows the performance and location of the largest operators. The 5 largest operators have all grown output in recent months.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells progress towards their ultimate recovery, as their production rate slows down over time. All wells are grouped by the quarter in which they started production.
Next week I will have a post on all covered US states again.
Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months in Texas.
Note that a significant portion of oil production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. I’ve estimated individual well production from well status & lease production data, as these are otherwise not provided. Because of these estimations, I recommend looking at larger samples (>50 wells) before drawing conclusions. About 7% of the horizontal Permian wells in Texas are excluded, as these were mixed with too many vertical wells on a lease, making reasonable well profile estimations impossible. I’ve no spud, DUC, or plugging information on wells in Texas, so these statuses are unavailable. Detailed location data is available for all New Mexico wells, and for almost 99% of the Texan wells displayed; the remaining wells are shown near the center of the county in which they are located. Formation data in Texas is only available on lease level; therefore in cases where wells on the same lease are drilled in different formations, this information is not accurate.
- OCD in New Mexico. Accurate individual well production data is provided.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.