Eagle Ford - update through May 2017
09 / 12 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 19010 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region (TRRC districts 1-4), that started producing since 2010, through May 2017.
Now that I have access to far more well and production data in Texas, the results shown here are more complete and accurate than before. Where in the past I used typical decline curves to solve the “lease allocation” puzzle (production in Texas is reported by lease, not by well), now several types of individual well data points are included in this algorithm to accurately determine the production history for individual wells.
For example, regular well tests, which measure actual oil, gas, and water production, are now used as the main key, but also known shut-ins, and oil proration data. I plan to show this “lease allocation” process in more detail in a separate post, in the coming 2 weeks.
Especially for the Permian, where there are several leases with hundreds of wells, I expect results to be quite a bit better and complete.
Also more detailed formation data is available now, and water production has been estimated from the fore-mentioned well tests. In most overviews in this post, I have selected the “Eagle Ford” and “Austin Chalk” formations (to exclude certain conventional horizontal wells), so beware of this when you want to include other formations as well.
Ignoring the rather incomplete data for April and May, oil production in this region has stabilized at a level of about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day, while gas production is still modestly falling.
The trends of longer laterals, and more proppant per lateral feet, are still continuing in 2017. So far this year, lateral lengths in this region are about 7k feet, compared with just over 6k feet in 2014. The total proppant mass per completion rose to almost 12 million pounds in 2017, on average, versus 7 million in 2014.
As usual, the “Well quality” tab shows how these factors have led to changes in the production profiles of these horizontal wells. In 2017, wells peak at a rate greater than 600 bo/d, before starting a similar decline profile as earlier wells.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview we can see that new wells recover about 80 kbo in the first 6 months on production, which is close to double the amount that wells starting in 2012 did. However, it doesn’t appear that the ultimate recovery will also be a factor 2 larger.
In the 2nd overview (“Cumulative production ranking”), all these horizontal wells are ranked according to their cumulative production. As individual well production is estimated more accurately now, I belief that the accuracy of this ranking has also risen. It appears that 3 horizontal wells, that started production since 2010, have now done more than 800 kbo cumulatively.
The “Productivity distribution” overview is handy if you’re interested to know the % of wells that reach at least a certain amount of production, within a specified time frame. For example, using the black curve, you’ll see that of all these wells that have produced at least 2 years, just over 10% has done more than 200 kbo. You’ll get this number by subtracting the running total in the tooltip (89.63%) from 100%, at the 200 kbo mark. Of course you can use the selection boxes to narrow down the population of wells that you wish to look at.
On Thursday I plan to publish a new post on the Permian, followed by an update on North Dakota.
I would like to warmly express my gratitude to Mike Shellman, who again did not spare any expense in supporting me with knowledge on the procedures of the Texas RRC.
In the coming month I still plan to make a few smaller improvements to the Texas data. For example, I want to include pending production, and also estimate the production from wells that do not have a single well test reported yet. These improvements are only relevant for about 1% of the wells.
Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Now individual well production data is accurately estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests that measure actual well production (oil, gas & water).
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight the related data.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.