Permian - update through August 2017
11 / 05 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 12649 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2009/2010, through August 2017.
As explained in my post on the Eagle Ford, now that I have access to ‘Pending data’, the production data I can show for Texas is far more complete than before (and will be revised less). The result is that I can share the preliminary production figures up to August already. Although data for New Mexico is included, I have deselected it in some of the views, like the one above, as it is fairly incomplete for recent months.
As the graph shows, oil production in the Texas side of the Permian has grown steeply in the first half of 2017, faster than in any other 6 month period. In August, more than 70% of the total oil production was produced by wells that came online since 2016. The difference with my previous posts on the Permian is quite large, as a significant amount of production was not yet processed by the RRC (and thus had the status ‘pending’).
The “Well quality” overview shows an important factor behind this growth: the average production profile has improved significantly in recently years. The profiles from wells that started since 2016 are now very similar to those in the Bakken (ND).
If you select Pioneer Natural Resources in that overview (using the Operator selection), which is the largest oil producer in this region, you can see that its wells are better than average; the ones that started since 2016 recover on average more than 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 20 months on production, double the amount of wells that started in 2014.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average cumulative production versus production rate, for all these horizontal wells in the Texas Permian basin, grouped by the quarter in which they started. The second quarter of 2016 appears so far to mark the end of several years of performance increases.
The last tab (“Water ratio”), shows the water oil ratio for all these wells. I have estimated the actual water production from regular well test data. On average, just below 3 barrels of water are produced for each barrel of oil.
On Thursday I will have a post on all the 10 states I cover in the US.
Production data is subject to revisions.
Note that a significant portion of oil production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data.
- OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.