US - update through July 2017
11 / 09 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 78,491 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through July. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 7.4 Gbo and 76.9 Tcf.
Now that the production data I have for Texas is more complete (by including the ‘pending production’ reports), we can get a more complete picture of how oil production from horizontal wells has developed in 2017 in most of the US shale basins. Since the low in September last year, output has risen again, and is nearing the previous high in March 2015.
Oil production from wells that started in 2017 (the pink area in the above graph) contributed already more than 30% of total production in July (1.3 vs 4.0 million bo/d).
If you switch to gas, you can see that gas production has continuously grown since 2010, and that in 2017 the growth rate is faster than in the previous 2 years. This excludes production from Ohio and West Virginia, which both do not regularly post new data and are therefore deselected. Remarkably, the gas output from wells that started before 2013 is even growing, as some of them are being refracked (especially in the Haynesville).
In the “Well quality” tab the production curves are shown for all these horizontal wells. I’ve preselected the oil basins (see the “Basin” selection). As the bottom graph shows, the average cumulative production from wells that started early 2016 is now already as much (~135 kbo) as from wells that started up to 4 years earlier, due to improved initial productivity.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the clear relationship between cumulative production, and production rates, over time. Also here I’ve selected the major oil basins, and the wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.
The red line marks the performance of the 1284 wells that started in Q3 2016; after 11 months, they recovered just over 100 kbo. I estimate that their cumulative production will be in the range of 200 -250 kbo once they reach a production level of 30 bo/d. If you switch to gas, you can see that the same wells also produced on average 286 MMcf of natural gas.
On the Get the Data the latest production data is again available.
Next week I will have a post with the September production from North Dakota.
Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below.
- Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
- Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease production is allocated over individual wells in order to estimate individual well production.
- Montana Board of Oil and Gas
- New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
- North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
- Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending production data.
- West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
- West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey
- Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.