Permian - update through September 2017
11 / 27 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 12809 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2009/2010, through September 2017.
In this update we can see even more clearly how fast production has grown in 2017 so far in the Texas part of the Permian. Even though this data includes the data from pending leases (a Texas technicality), it is clear that production data from the June to August time-frame is still quite incomplete. Based on this month additions, I estimate that production for August will eventually turn out to be 100 (+- 50) kbo/d higher than shown here. While preliminary production for September is shown as well, I recommend to ignore it. I have deselected New Mexico, as it is even more incomplete than the Texas data for recent months. To see it, you can use the basin selection.
In the “Well quality” tab, the production profiles are shown for all these wells. In the bottom graph you can see that since 2011 these curves have significantly improved every year until 2016. The wells that started production this year are on average quite closely tracking those of last year. If you switch product to “gas”, you can see that the same holds for natural gas production, although now the 2017 wells are a bit ahead again.
In the “Well status” tab you can see the number of wells that were put online each month. In May this number was very similar as the high seen in 2014. This graph also indicates that data for later months is rather incomplete.
In the last tab we can find the output of the top 5 producers in this region. Pioneer Natural Resources is clearly in the lead, while it was at the bottom of this list just over 3 years ago.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, while they are heading towards their ultimate recovery. As recent wells are so much better performing than older ones, there is less guidance on how they will decline over time than we’ve seen in the other basins.
If you change to gas here, you’ll see that these wells also appear on track to produce a significant amount of natural gas (I estimate > 1 Bcf on average for newer wells).
The 9th tab (“Gas oil ratio”) shows how the gas oil ratio has generally increased with age for individual wells. The blue curve in the bottom graph reveals this ratio averaged over all wells, and that it hasn’t changed much over the past 2 years.
On Thursday I plan to have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on all the 10 states by the middle of next week. Production data is subject to revisions.
Note that a significant portion of oil production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data.
- OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.