Marcellus (PA) & Utica (OH) - update through September 2017
12 / 20 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data from all 9,764 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2010, through September. This data includes the production numbers just released by Ohio for Q3 2017.
Gas production from these unconventional wells reached a new high in September, just below 20 Bcf/d. Initial productivity increased a lot over the past year. That explains why the 787 wells that started production in first 9 months of 2017 are in September at an average production rate of about 50% higher compared with the 733 wells that started in the same period last year.
If you look at the “Well quality” tab, you can see that peak rates have consistently grown over the past 7 years, and are now about 3-fold compared with wells starting in 2010. However, the declines of the 2016/2017 vintages following this peak rate are also sharper, and they appear to be closing in on the production profiles of the 2014/2015 wells.
The status of all these wells can be seen in the “Well status” tab. The ‘drilled, but uncompleted’ well inventory is up by about 10% since a year ago, as is visible in the top chart.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started production in a certain year. For more recent, and granular data, you can switch the “Show wells by” selection to quarter or month.
In the 2nd tab (“Cumulative production ranking”) the cumulative production of all this wells is shown. Twelve wells in this region have now each produced more than 15 Bcf of natural gas cumulatively.
The 4th tab (“Productivity ranking”) reveals that of the major operators with at least 100 wells, Cabot and Rice are well above the others as measured by average cumulative production in the first 2 years.
Coming Friday or Saturday I plan to have a new post on the Permian with data through October, followed by one on the Eagle Ford next week.
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Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Ohio Department of Natural Resources
- Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.