Permian - update through September 2017 (New)
12 / 22 / 2017
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 13071 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2009/2010, through September 2017.
Completeness of recent production data is always an issue in these states. Instead of showing rather incomplete data for October, I thought it would be more enlightening to have another look at the most recent data through September (although I still expect minor upward revisions).
Data from the New Mexico side of the Permian is also shown. The graph above reveals that output from horizontal wells has grown at the fastest pace in the history of the Permian. It already crossed the 1.6 million bo/d in September, and has now without doubt passed the high mark of the Eagle Ford in March 2015 at 1.66 million bo/d.
In the “Well quality” tab, the production profiles for all these wells are shown . If you compare these profiles to those in the Eagle Ford, you’ll notice something striking: whereas productivity in the Eagle Ford is only up slightly, and mostly in the early months, average well productivity in the Permian has steadily improved in recent years. Crucially, these gains appear not to be limited to the initial phase.
The last tab (“Top operators”) shows that the leading 3 operators in the Permian (Pioneer, Concho & EOG) have used these developments to rapidly increase their total output.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, while they are heading towards their ultimate recovery.
If you follow the curves corresponding with the wells that started early 2016, you’ll notice that with ~150 kbo cumulative production, they have on average already produced more than earlier wells, despite starting later.
The 5th tab (“Productivity over time”) shows the average cumulative production over the first 2 years, from wells starting in a certain quarter. In the period from mid 2013 to mid 2015 (the latest for which this metric can be calculated), this amount has doubled from ~70 kbo to over 140 kbo.
In the 2nd half of next week, I plan to have a post on the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions.
The latest data for Texas (through October) & New Mexico (through September) has been made available on the Get the Data page.
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At the request of Jim Brooker, I created an extra overview that visualizes the relationship between what I call ‘ultimate recovery profiles’, and the Gas/Oil ratio. This is temporarily available here.
Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data.
- OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.