Permian - update through November 2017
03 / 12 / 2018
This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 13,606 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2009/2010, through November 2017.
The above graph shows the remarkable growth in oil production from horizontal wells in this area, with the pace even increasing further in 2017. The small drop in November is likely caused by incomplete data, which is usual for these states, as I expect that another record was set again. If you change ‘product’ to ‘Gas’, you’ll see that the story for natural gas production is very similar, although the decline rates are somewhat lower.
In the “Well quality” tab, the production profiles for all these wells are shown. Average well performance improved significantly from 2013 to 2016, and was again slightly better in 2017. Unlike some of the other basins, the improvements are not only located in the first 1-2 years that a well is producing.
The ‘Top operators’ tab shows that the 3 largest operators each operate more than 100 thousand bo/d of gross production here: Pioneer Natural Resources, Concho and EOG. If you click on Pioneer Natural Resources in the legend, you can see in the map below that it only operates positions in Texas, while the other 2 operate in both states.
The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:
This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, while they are heading towards their ultimate recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which they started production (you can change this to year or month, using the ‘Show wells by’ selection).
The performance of the wells that started in Q3 2017 are a little below that of wells starting in Q1 2017, as is shown by the blue (Q3) and orange (Q1) lines on top. However, the number of wells that started in Q3 was also far larger (147 vs 87).
By tracking the red curve, you can see that the 97 wells that started in Q1 2016 peaked at a rate of about 640 bo/d, and are now just above 100 bo/d, with a cumulative production of over 150 kbo (all averages).
Later this week I will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on all 10 covered US states.
Production data is subject to revisions.
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Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2010, which are excluded from these presentations.
For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:
- Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data.
- OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
The above presentations have many interactive features:
- You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
- Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
- Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
- You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
- By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
- Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
- The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
- If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.