US - update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 98,450 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through October 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.9 Gbo and 108 Tcf. West Virginia and Ohio are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag.

Later this post I will be making 3 major announcements; about a new (and cheap!) analytics service, Oklahoma, and the NAPE.

But first, how has shale oil production developed in the past year?

You will find in the graph above that all these horizontal wells produced 6.2 million barrels of oil per day in October, which after revisions will be a few percents higher still. More than half of total oil production came from wells that started in 2018, as indicated by the dark blue area.

Over 20% more wells were completed in the first 10 months 2018, compared with the same period a year earlier.

Initial well productivity increased slightly further in 2018, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab, where all the oily basins have been preselected.

All the 5 top shale producers were at, or near, production highs in October (“Top operators”).

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

 

 

This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started.

Peak rates have steadily moved higher over the years, as you’ll see here. In Q3 2018, the average peak rate was 668 bo/d, versus 285 bo/d 7 years earlier. Extrapolating these curves allows you to make a reasonable estimate of the ultimate recovery range. You can switch ‘Product’ to natural gas, to do the same for the gas stream of these wells.

Today we have 3 major announcements to make:

1) A new analytics subscription level is now available, ShaleProfile Analytics – Analyst, For just $52 per month you can always get access to the latest data, see the exact location of more than 100,000 horizontal wells, and their production history. Most dashboards can be viewed full-screen, and you will have more filtering options, such as between oil & gas wells. If you have been a follower of the blog, and want to stay even more informed, this may be something for you. You can try out this service for the first month for just $19. We almost lose money on this subscription, so don’t wait too long!

2) Oklahoma is in now! Oklahoma has so far been the big missing state in our database. By having it in, we now cover around 98% of all the horizontal wells in the US. It has been a tough state to work with, as data sources are unreliable and incomplete. We have spent a big amount of effort (and $) to add it. There are still some data issues to sort out, but we believe we can already now call it at least a 90% version. There is a greater lag time for Oklahoma than for most other states; we can currently cover production data through March 2018. Try out one of our subscriptions to get access to all this data!

3) Today the NAPE conference here in Houston will start for real. Come visit our booth (#2331) if you have the opportunity, and I’ll show you what we can do for you.

Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release December data later this week.

Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below.

  • FracFocus.org
  • Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
  • Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
  • Montana Board of Oil and Gas
  • New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
  • North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
  • Ohio Department of Natural Resources
  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
  • West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
  • West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey
  • Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

 

Discussion

  • shallow sand says:

    I see Laredo Pefroleum is going to widen the spacing between its Permian wells.

  • Paul-Adrien Lepers says:

    Is water ratio meaning something with the oil production/well?

    1. Enno says:

      Paul-Adrien,

      In the water ratio dashboard, you can find the produced water production, divided by the oil production (Water Oil Ratio = water / oil, in # of barrels). In a few states, water production is not published, so you will also see the number of wells for which water production was unavailable.

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