Marcellus (PA) – update through April 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,915 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through April.

With March revisions in, it has become clear that another record was set, at 18.4 Bcf/d. April natural gas production was at a similar level.

New wells recover on average more than 4 Bcf of gas in the first 2 years on production (‘Well quality’ tab). It took each of the ~1,300 horizontal wells, that began production in 2013, more than 5 years to reach that level.

The top 4 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania all set new output records this year (‘Top operators’). We still list EQT and Rice Drilling as 2 separate entities.

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain quarter.

Improvements in initial well productivity have not yet stalled; the 195 wells that started production in Q4 last year had so far the best start, recovering 1.7 Bcf in the first 5 months, on average.

You can also find here that many wells from the 2010 vintage have now declined to below 500 Mcf/d, while recovering about 3.2 Bcf. The wells from the 2017/2018 vintages are on a trajectory to triple that number, on average.

Tomorrow, Tuesday July 2nd at noon (ET), we will present a 20 minute briefing on all the major tight gas basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page.

Later this week we will have a post on the Permian, and next week on the Eagle Ford. The latest Texas data is already available in our online analytics service. For just $52 per month, you can already always access the latest production data with the Analyst version of ShaleProfile Analytics. This is a monthly subscription service that you can cancel at any time.

Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

 

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items.
  • You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Discussion

  • Coffeeguyzz says:

    Looks like JKLM is halting all work in the AB.
    Press release the other day just announced it citing present and long term low pricing for natgas.

    Interesting history of Marcellus events to be learned by reading of Terry Pegula’s multi decade long experience as an operator in this area.

    To expand on this high output-induced low commodity price situation, Shell (operating as SWEPI) just said that their 3 wells on the Kinnan pad targeting the Utica in Tioga county are their most successful wells yet in the Basin.

    Abundant natgas will be produced from this region far, far off into the future.

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