Pennsylvania – update through May 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,967 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through May.

Similar to last year, May production dipped m-o-m and came in at 18.1 Bcf/d, an increase of 2.4 Bcf/d y-o-y.

Well performance has increased substantially over the years, as is visible in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The 594 horizontal wells that began production in 2010 needed 6 years before they recovered an average of 3 Bcf of natural gas. It only took 14 months to reach this level for the 748 horizontal wells that came online in 2017.

Although initial well productivity is still increasing, the rate of improvement has slowed down since 2017.

The top operators are displayed in the final tab. Cabot set a new output record at 2.8 Bcf/d.

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in the same year.

As you can see, the 2018 vintage is on a slightly higher UR trajectory than the previous year. By extrapolating these curves, you can make a reasonable estimate of ultimate recovery, given a certain economic limit.

The 4th tab, ‘Productivity ranking’, ranks all operators in this area by the average gas recovery in the first 2 years. Cabot is in the lead, with an average of 5 Bcf for all its 513 horizontal wells that have already been producing for at least 2 years.

Later this week we will have a new update on the Permian, followed by a post on the Eagle Ford early next week.

Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

 

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items.
  • You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

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