Colorado & Wyoming - update through April 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 10,717 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming from 2009/2010 onward, through April 2019.

Oil production in these 2 states almost doubled from early 2017 until the end of last year to 640 thousand bo/d. Despite a jump in production, April came in slightly below the December peak.

The underlying declines are high as you can see by following the top of the colored areas. For example, the total oil production from the 8,561 horizontal wells that began production before 2018 declined from 513 thousand bo/d in Dec 2017 to 205 thousand bo/d in April this year (60% in 16 months).

The natural gas production profile looks rather different (switch “Product” to gas); it is setting new records on almost a monthly basis, and it is currently at over 3.6 Bcf/d.

In the “Well quality” tab you will find the production profiles for all these wells, with the main oil basins pre-selected (the DJ and the Powder River Basin). Surprisingly, well productivity has slightly declined since 2017, the year in which a major boost in productivity can be seen. By extrapolating these production profiles, you can find that after about 7-10 years on production, most wells are falling below a rate of 10 bo/d.

Anadarko, still the leading operator, is almost on the same output level as 4 years ago. The other operators in the top-5 (Noble Energy, Extraction, EOG & PDC) all set new production records in recent months.

The “Advanced Insights” presentation is displayed below:

In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.

This chart reveals that the wells that began production before 2017 are on a path to recover 70-140 thousand barrels of oil, before they have declined to 10 bo/d. The wells that came online in the past 2 years may recover 160 to 200 thousand barrels of oil, before hitting this level. These are all averages; if you only select the Powder River Basin (using the “Basin” filter), you will find that EURs are higher there.

Early next week we will have a post on all the 12 US states that we publicly cover (Oklahoma is available in our subscription services).

Production data is subject to revisions.

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
  • Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
  • FracFocus.org

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

Discussion

  • Alex says:

    It seems like +50% is produced in Weld County. You state 8270 wells in this county having produced in excess of 20 billion barrels, is this correct, or am I reading it wrong?

    1. Enno says:

      Hi Alex,

      Weld County is indeed good for about 70% of the oil produced in these 2 states.

      “You state 8270 wells in this county having produced in excess of 20 billion barrels, is this correct, or am I reading it wrong?”

      I can’t see where I mentioned this, and it would be wrong if I did. In the “Cumulative ranking” dashboard, you can see that the 7,135 horizontal wells that started production in Weld since 2009 have so far recovered 636 million bbl.

      1. alex says:

        Enno, tnx. I just looked at the Where? tab. It says Weld has 8270 wells with cummulative oil production of 20 629 457 511 bls. Where can i see 7,135?

        1. Enno says:

          Alex,

          Thanks for reporting this issue, that was indeed incorrect. It is adjusted now, and it now shows the same value as you will find in the “Cumulative production ranking” dashboard, which is the 2nd dashboard in the 2nd presentation. In it, all counties are ranked by total production to date. That dashboard only includes wells that have started production, while the “Where” dashboard also includes DUCs.

  • alex says:

    How many wells can Weld support given its acreage?

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