Permian – update through July 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 23,382 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through July 2019.

Upward revisions for the summer months were relatively large in the production data that the RRC released last week. Based on the latest actual data, May production in the Permian (including New Mexico) was already at 3.5 million bo/d, which will increase further once all revisions are in. July, also shown here at 3.5 million bo/d, will probably be revised even more (as is common for more recent months), to around 3.7-3.8 million bo/d eventually. August production data (>90% complete) is only available in our subscription services.

Initial well productivity is still slightly increasing, as you can find in the “Well quality” tab, which shows all the production profiles by year in which production started.

As mentioned in previous posts, this does not consider that well lengths and proppant loadings have increased over the years. Normalizing for lateral length, we still find that well results are basically unchanged since 2016, as shown in the following dashboard, which was taken from our advanced analytics service:

 

Normalized well productivity in the Permian, by vintage, since 2014. Oil wells only.

The performance of the 16,000 horizontal oil wells that began production between 2014 and 2018 can be seen here. Click on the image to see the high-resolution version.

The astonishing growth of production by the largest operators in the basin can be viewed in the final dashboard (“Top operators”). Concho and Pioneer were both at ~260 thousand bo/d in July (preliminary data).

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.

If new wells keep following the decline behavior seen in older wells, they are on a path to recover on average between 400 and 500 thousand barrels of oil, before they have declined to 10 bo/d (in addition to more than 2 Bcf of natural gas).

The gas-oil ratio has increased over the years in the basin, and is now at 3.5 (Mcf/bbl), which is also shown in the 9th tab (“Gas oil ratio”, bottom chart).

Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, where output has not increased this year.

Production and completion data are subject to revisions.

Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.

For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data.
  • OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
  • FracFocus.org

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

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