Eagle Ford - update through July 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 23,368 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing from 2008 onward, through July 2019.

July oil production came in at 1.3 million bo/d, basically unchanged since the start of the year. Natural gas production was just short of 6.3 Bcf/d, the highest level in 3 years (switch product to “gas” to see this).

A careful observer may note the (small) increase in output of older well vintages, in recent months. We are still investigating what is causing this. So far it seems that a small number of operators is responsible for this, and that it may have to do with inconsistent or erroneous reporting.

A major issue for the basin is that well productivity has been stagnant in the last 3 years. As you can see in the ‘Well quality’ tab, which shows the production profiles for all these wells, well productivity has no longer increased since 2017.

In fact, as our analytics subscribers can verify in our analytics service, well productivity is down in all the top 6 oil-producing counties in the Eagle Ford, except in McMullen. The following chart shows how well productivity, measured as the cumulative oil recovered in the first year, normalized by lateral length, has evolved in these counties:

 

Well productivity in the top 6 oil-producing counties in the Eagle Ford. Oil wells only.

 

This lower well performance is also hurting the top US shale operator, EOG (see the “Top operators” dashboard).

The following dashboard shows that its well results (whether or not normalized for lateral length) have significantly declined last year, in the 2 counties from which it gets most of its oil (Karnes and Gonzales).

 

EOG’s well performance in Karnes and Gonzales. Oil wells only, with a production start between 2015 and 2018.

This slowdown in EOG’s well productivity was first reported last month by the Wall Street Journal, which also used our subscription service for these findings: Shale Boom Is Slowing Just When the World Needs Oil Most (behind paywall).

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped and averaged by the year in which production started.

The 4,437 horizontal wells that began production in 2014 have now recovered 155 thousand barrels of oil (plus 0.64 Bcf of natural gas), and they are currently flowing at a rate of 25 bo/d, on average.

Early next week we will have a new post on all covered states in the US.

Production and completion data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months.

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports.
  • FracFocus.org

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The presentations above have many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight the related data.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

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