Posts by: Enno Peters
DJ-Niobrara – update through December 2020
Oil production in the DJ-Niobrara fell by almost 1/3rd from 579 thousand b/d to 390 thousand b/d in the 13 months from the peak in November 2019 through December last year. The wells in this area have high decline rates and in 2020 fewer than half the number of wells were completed (588) than in the years before. December production was the lowest level in over 3 years.Haynesville – update through December 2020
Natural gas production came in close to 11 Bcf/d in December (after upcoming revisions), approaching the peak of May 2020, even though fewer wells were completed in 2020 compared with the 2 years before (~350 vs. 421 & 432 in 2019/2018).North Dakota – update through January 2021
Oil production in North Dakota fell by 4% m-o-m, to 1.11 million bo/d in January, based on preliminary data. Just 25 new wells came online, the lowest number in at least 12 years, except for May last year when the number was 17. In the past 2 months, 12 rigs were drilling horizontal wells in the state, which in our estimation is about half of what would be needed to maintain current output.US – update through November 2020
US tight oil production continued to hover at a level close to 7.0 million bo/d in November, for the 5th consecutive month. Natural gas did a little better, as it slightly rose to above 65 Bcf/d. which was only 3 Bcf/d below the record set in March.Pennsylvania – update through December 2020
Pennsylvania has been setting natural gas output records every year for over a decade, and 2020 was no exception; a fresh record was recorded in December at 20.6 Bcf/d. This was done despite a decade-low in the number of well completions (561 in 2020, vs. 713 in 2019).Eagle Ford – update through November 2020
Tight oil production in the Eagle Ford came in at just below 1.1 million bo/d in November, a level at which it had hovered for already 4 months. Natural gas output was also near a 6-year low at 5.3 Bcf/d.Permian – update through November 2020
Permian tight oil production rose in November by 1% m-o-m to ~3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Natural gas production is with 14.8 Bcf/d close to a record level and the basin is now about 25% gassier than 2 years ago, as fewer wells came online last year(new wells start with a low gas-to-oil ratio). I expect that this trend will continue as the basin continues to age, simply because the gas-to-oil ratio for older wells is even higher (~6 Mcf/bbl after 5 years on average).North Dakota – update through December 2020
Oil production in North Dakota continued its fall to 1.15 million bo/d in December (before revisions). Almost 600 wells were completed in 2020, fewer than half compared with the previous year (1,270) and the lowest number since 2009. This was obviously not sufficient to maintain output and the loss year-over-year was almost 300 thousand bo/d.US – update through October 2020
US tight oil production was basically unchanged in October, at nearly 7.0 million bo/d. Over 500 horizontal wells came online for the month, a higher number than in the preceding 5 months, but far lower than the more than 1,000 wells we saw in a typical month in 2019.Pennsylvania – update through November 2020
Pennsylvanian natural gas production jumped in November (as it often does) and set a new record at almost exactly 20 Bcf/d. The previous high was a year earlier in November 2019 at 19.6 Bcf/d. As is visualized almost half of this output in November was produced from wells that came online in the past 2 years.
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