North Dakota – update through July 2021

Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells fell m-o-m by 50 thousand bo/d in July (5%). Although 46 wells began producing in July, the same number as in June, their average initial performance was poorer than usual, which explains about half of the decline. Natural gas production fell as well, to 2.8 Bcf/d.

North Dakota – update through June 2021

Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells came in at 1.09 million bo/d in June, unchanged from the month before. Natural gas production was also steady at 2.9 Bcf/d. In the first half of this year, 271 horizontal wells were completed, versus 396 in 2020 (and 575 in 2019).

North Dakota – update through May 2021

Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells rose by less than 1% in May, m-o-m, to 1.09 million bo/d. Natural gas production increased to 2.94 Bcf/d. Only 44 wells were completed in May, but the inactive well count fell by over 100 to just below 1,500.

North Dakota – update through April 2021

Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells rose by 1% in April, m-o-m, to 1.08 million bo/d. Natural gas production has hovered just below 3.0 Bcf/d since October. Only 177 horizontal wells began production in the first 4 months of this year, the lowest in over a decade.

North Dakota – update through March 2021

Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells grew by 2% m-o-m, to 1.07 million bo/d in March, after a 6% drop the month before, when several states were hit by harsh winter weather. Natural gas production was with 2.9 Bcf/d not far from the peak exactly one year earlier, at 3.1 Bcf/d.

North Dakota – update through February 2021

Oil production in North Dakota from horizontal wells fell by 6% m-o-m, to 1.05 million bo/d in February, based on preliminary data. Only 1 well came online every day in the first 2 months, on average, while more than 2 are required to sustain the current output.

North Dakota – update through January 2021

Oil production in North Dakota fell by 4% m-o-m, to 1.11 million bo/d in January, based on preliminary data. Just 25 new wells came online, the lowest number in at least 12 years, except for May last year when the number was 17. In the past 2 months, 12 rigs were drilling horizontal wells in the state, which in our estimation is about half of what would be needed to maintain current output.

North Dakota – update through December 2020

Oil production in North Dakota continued its fall to 1.15 million bo/d in December (before revisions). Almost 600 wells were completed in 2020, fewer than half compared with the previous year (1,270) and the lowest number since 2009. This was obviously not sufficient to maintain output and the loss year-over-year was almost 300 thousand bo/d.

North Dakota – update through November 2020

Oil production in North Dakota fell by less than 1% in November at just below 1.18 million bo/d. This was a tad lower than the first peak in December 2014 (1.19 million b/d). Although more than 2,100 wells are still shut-in (up from 1,500 before the pandemic started and down from the 4,300 in May), I don’t expect this number to fall by much anymore, as it hasn’t over the last month. Through November 2020, 551 wells started production, which was less than half compared with the same period in the year before (1,176).

North Dakota – update through October 2020

Oil production in North Dakota fell by 1% in October to just below 1.2 million bo/d, despite that more than 100 temporarily shut-in wells were brought back online. The main reason for the drop was that between May and October only 1 well was completed every day, on average, far below the level required to maintain current output (~3 wells/day).