Permian – update through March 2021

Tight oil production in the Permian rose by 800 thousand bo/d in March (horizontal wells only), more than compensating the fall in the preceding month due to the cold weather. At 3.9 million bo/d, output was the highest since April last year.

Permian – update through February 2021

Tight oil production in the Permian fell by over 600 thousand bo/d in February, the largest single-month decline in its history. Operations were severely impacted by the coldest weather in 30 years. Production plunged to just above 3 million bo/d (hz. wells only), the lowest volume in 2.5 years. Based on preliminary production data, we expect that March output was back to the January level.

Permian – update through January 2021

Since June last year, Permian tight oil production has hovered at a level close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions, hz. wells only). Natural gas production is at record heights (>15 Bcf/d). In the next update on this basin, we should learn exactly how much output was impacted by the harsh weather in February.

Permian – update through December 2020

Permian tight oil production was basically unchanged in December at close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions, hz. wells only). The ~3,700 horizontal wells that came online in 2020 replaced almost 1.7 million b/d of the underlying base decline of 2.0 million b/d for the year.

Permian – update through November 2020

Permian tight oil production rose in November by 1% m-o-m to ~3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Natural gas production is with 14.8 Bcf/d close to a record level and the basin is now about 25% gassier than 2 years ago, as fewer wells came online last year(new wells start with a low gas-to-oil ratio). I expect that this trend will continue as the basin continues to age, simply because the gas-to-oil ratio for older wells is even higher (~6 Mcf/bbl after 5 years on average).

Permian – update through October 2020

Permian tight oil production fell in October by 1% m-o-m to below 3.7 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Over 1/3rd fewer wells were completed in the first 10 months of 2020 (~2,800), compared with the same period in 2019 (4,568). Gas production has held up at nearly 15 Bcf/d.

Permian – update through September 2020

Permian tight oil production held steady for the 3rd consecutive month in September, at close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). This represents a drop in oil output of about 10% since March, which is just half of what the all the other tight basins lost combined (~20%). At 3.2 million bo/d, they produce well below the level in this basin.

Permian – update through August 2020

Tight oil production in the Permian was roughly flat in August, at close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions), probably slightly below the level a year earlier. Natural gas production set a new record at 15 Bcf/d (also after upcoming revisions; toggle Product to ‘Gas’ to see this).

Permian – update through July 2020

Oil production in the Permian recovered further in July, to around 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Natural gas production was at over 14 Bcf/d close to the March high (toggle Product to gas to see this).

Permian – update through June 2020

Oil production in the Permian recovered by over 200 thousand bo/d in June, to around 3.7 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). An important reason for the increase was of course that operators brought wells back online, after oil prices improved from the terrible lows in the 3 months before.