Permian – update through December 2020

Permian tight oil production was basically unchanged in December at close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions, hz. wells only). The ~3,700 horizontal wells that came online in 2020 replaced almost 1.7 million b/d of the underlying base decline of 2.0 million b/d for the year.

Permian – update through November 2020

Permian tight oil production rose in November by 1% m-o-m to ~3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Natural gas production is with 14.8 Bcf/d close to a record level and the basin is now about 25% gassier than 2 years ago, as fewer wells came online last year(new wells start with a low gas-to-oil ratio). I expect that this trend will continue as the basin continues to age, simply because the gas-to-oil ratio for older wells is even higher (~6 Mcf/bbl after 5 years on average).

Permian – update through October 2020

Permian tight oil production fell in October by 1% m-o-m to below 3.7 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Over 1/3rd fewer wells were completed in the first 10 months of 2020 (~2,800), compared with the same period in 2019 (4,568). Gas production has held up at nearly 15 Bcf/d.

Permian – update through September 2020

Permian tight oil production held steady for the 3rd consecutive month in September, at close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). This represents a drop in oil output of about 10% since March, which is just half of what the all the other tight basins lost combined (~20%). At 3.2 million bo/d, they produce well below the level in this basin.

Permian – update through August 2020

Tight oil production in the Permian was roughly flat in August, at close to 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions), probably slightly below the level a year earlier. Natural gas production set a new record at 15 Bcf/d (also after upcoming revisions; toggle Product to ‘Gas’ to see this).

Permian – update through July 2020

Oil production in the Permian recovered further in July, to around 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). Natural gas production was at over 14 Bcf/d close to the March high (toggle Product to gas to see this).

Permian – update through June 2020

Oil production in the Permian recovered by over 200 thousand bo/d in June, to around 3.7 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). An important reason for the increase was of course that operators brought wells back online, after oil prices improved from the terrible lows in the 3 months before.

Permian – update through May 2020

Production from horizontal wells in the Permian fell by around 0.5 million bo/d in May to 3.3 million bo/d, the largest monthly decline since the shale revolution started here. Based on preliminary data for June (already available in our subscription services), it appears that a far smaller drop happened in the month after.

Permian – update through April 2020

In April, about 3.9 million bo/d was produced from horizontal wells in the Permian (after upcoming revisions), a m-o-m decline of ~5%. Based on preliminary data for May, which is already for almost 90% complete in our subscription services, I expect to see a larger drop next month of around 10%. These declines are quite a bit smaller, relatively, than that we saw in North Dakota (see the previous blog post), which posted a 30% fall in May.

Permian – update through March 2020

In March, about 4.1 million bo/d was produced from horizontal wells in the Permian (after upcoming revisions). The impact of the low prices only started to become visible in the following month, although, based on preliminary data (available in our subscription services), the drop appears to have been less than e.g. in North Dakota.