Niobrara (CO) – update until 2015-12


I’ve made the following update to the above presentation on the Niobrara in Weld county (Colorado):

  • Production data now runs until December 2015, which is provided by the COGCC. This data is still subject to future revisions, I estimate in the order of not more than a few percent though. The wells in the dataset here are responsible for almost 75% of the current oil production in Colorado.
  • Output from all well types are included, but only for wells that started production since 2010. On the well quality tab, the well productivity is shown only for horizontal wells. I changed the scale to logarithmic. This is less intuitive, but I belief it provides more clarity on the shape of the decline profile.
  • I made some improvements to the filters and tooltips, and added an overview of the top 5 producers in this area.

Although production held up well in 2015, there was quite a big drop in December. This drop may be somewhat reduced when production numbers are revised, but I still expect the drop to be large, and that the drop has continued in the months since, as we have seen so far for the Bakken as well. The drop shown here is in agreement, though somewhat larger, with what the EIA has reported for the Colorado and the Niobrara for December output (around 4.5% m-o-m decline vs around 3%).

As you can see from the total production chart, by the end of last year, 60% of the oil production came from wells that started production in 2015. This is because wells in the Niobrara decline much faster compared with what we’ve seen so far in the Bakken.

These wells do produce much more gas though, a glimpse of this can be seen from the tooltips in the overviews on the “Top companies” tab.

I plan another update on the Eagle Ford on coming Friday.

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items, and include or exclude categories.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.