Permian – update until 2016-05


The above presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 9617 selected horizontal wells in the Permian (New Mexico and Texas) until May.

There was a small drop in oil production in May, but as Texas revisions come in over time, this may all but disappear.

If you group production by “state”, you’ll see that since early 2015, the growth in production in Texas has been quite a bit higher than in New Mexico.

Using the “product” selection to switch to gas, we find that gas production is rising more rapidly, and that the natural declines are lower, similar as what we’ve seen elsewhere.

Since the last update, I’ve removed almost 400 horizontal wells on the Texas side. These wells were located on leases with lots of vertical wells, making it more difficult to estimate accurately the individual well production for these wells (as the Texas RRC only provides lease production). These wells were good for about 50 kbo/d, so this production has disappeared from this overview.

Looking at the “Well quality” overview, we can see the reason why the Permian has shown more resilience compared with the other oil basins, as well productivity has risen more sharply.

The Bakken used to be the only oil producing basin where shale wells declined relatively slowly after initial production, so that by month 20 they were still doing about 100 bo/d, dropping to about 50 bo/d by month 60.

We can now see that in the Permian new wells (2015/2016) are also on track to produce on average about 100 bo/d by month 20. It will be very interesting to see whether the declines after that will also go into the direction of the Bakken.

In the “Top companies” slide, we can see that Pioneer Resources has bucked the trend, and has grown quite significantly in oil production.

I expect to have another update on the US on Monday.

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items, and include or exclude categories.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.