Marcellus (PA) – update through November 2016


This interactive presentation contains the latest gas production data from all 7091 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania since 2010, through November. Ohio data through September is included, though by default deselected (use the “basin” selection to include it).

Total gas production increased with almost 1 Bcf/day in November. Fewer wells were inactive, and the wells that started in October had a good 2nd month on production.

In the last tab (“Top operators”), we can see that Chesapeake, after making a multi-year low in October, showed a significant rise in gas production in November.

The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

 

 

This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, for all the wells that started production in a certain year.

You can see that the wells that started in 2015 (blue) are so far tracking the performance of 2014 (orange) vintage wells quite closely, on average. These wells display a significant improvement over the earlier wells in this basin, not only in initial productivity, but also somewhat in the decline rate afterwards.

If you wish to see the performance of more recent wells, you can set the “Show wells by” selection to quarter or month of first flow. The reason that 2016 vintage wells aren’t shown here is that a group of wells is only shown once they’ve all gone through the same number of months on production (and production data for 2016 December wells is not yet in). This method makes sure that these curves don’t change once new data becomes available.

I’ll post an updated “Projections” presentation in the middle of February, in which the projected output of all the horizontal wells I cover will be shown, from the second half of 2016 onward. Next week Friday I plan another post on the Eagle Ford, followed by one on the Permian.

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Ohio Department of Natural Resources
  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

 

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.