Marcellus (PA) & Utica (OH) – update through December 2016


This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data from all 8654 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania and Ohio since 2010, through December.

After apparent shut-ins in October, gas production rose steeply in the final 2 months of 2016, and almost equaled the 2016 high in February, at over 18 BCF/day.

The top graph in the “Well quality” tab shows that though fewer in number (934 vs 1442), 2016 wells peaked quite a bit higher than 2015 wells. It appears that the 2016 wells decline more rapidly after their peak month, however, this is not so straightforward; the earlier 2016 wells behaved quite differently than the ones starting later in the year. We will see this later a bit better.

You can see in the final tab (“Top operators”) that the largest operators had a steady production output overall in 2016. Talisman shows a drop in December, but that is just because its legal name finally changed to Repsol, which acquired it a year earlier.

The new ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

 

 

This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, for all the wells that started production in a specific quarter.

Now we can see that the wells that started in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2016 peaked significantly higher than earlier wells. This chart also reveals quite clearly the general decline decline behavior of all the wells in this area, and an indication of where this may lead to in terms of Ultimate Recovery.

In the 3rd tab (“Well status map”), if you click on the “First flow” item in the color legend, the exact location of all the wells that started production in December is shown.

Coming Thursday, I’ve planned another update on all 8 states I cover in the US.

Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Ohio Department of Natural Resources
  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

 

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.