Marcellus (PA) – update through January 2017


This interactive presentation contains the latest gas production data from all 7193 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania since 2010, through January.

Since the 2016 October low, gas production increased significantly in the following 3 months, and set a new record in January at about 14.5 Bcf/d.

In the “Well quality” tab you can see the average performance of all these wells. Well productivity rose strongly from 2010 to 2014, after which improvements seem to have leveled off, on average.

You’ll notice in the last tab (“Top operators”) that the 2 largest operators here (Chesapeake & Cabot) have both increased production since the middle of 2016, and are close to their previous record outputs. In January they were together good for almost 30% of the total gas production from these horizontal wells in Pennsylvania.

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

 

 

This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, for all the wells that started production in a certain year.

Wells that started production in 2016 peaked again higher, with an average production rate of just above 7,000 Mcf/d in their first full calendar month on production.

Also interesting to see here is that the wells from each of the years 2010-2014 reached an average cumulative production of around 3 Bcf at about the same time. The 2013-2014 wells just managed to do so faster, and at higher production rates, and appear therefore to be on trajectories to recover more gas.

As Susquehanna is the top gas producing county, I was curious how the average well productivity has changed here in recent years. If you select only this county (using the “County” selection at the bottom), you can see that although this average performance initially deteriorated since 2014, from the 2nd half of 2016 onward there was quite a significant improvement again. This becomes even more visible once you change the “Show wells by” selection to “Quarter of first flow”.

The 3rd tab (“Well status map”) shows the location and status of all these wells. If you click on the “3. First flow” item in the legend, you can see where new wells were brought on production in January. A tooltip will show you, once you hover over the large highlighted blob of new wells in Susquehanna county, that Cabot put 11 new wells on production there.

By Friday I expect to have a new post on the Niobrara basin (CO & WY), followed by new posts on the Eagle Ford and the Permian next week.

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

 

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentation has many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.