Marcellus (PA) – update through December 2017


This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data from all 8,220 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania since 2010, through December 2017.

After adding more than 1 Bcf/d in November, December gas production grew by another 0.5 Bcf/d to almost 16 Bcf/d in Pennsylvania (only counting unconventional horizontal wells since 2010). As a reader commented last time, production was probably supported in Q4 by additional pipeline capacity becoming available.

As is shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab, average initial well productivity made a major jump upwards in 2017 (actually since Q4 2016), and has been holding at that level steady since.

Chesapeake and Range Resources showed the largest increases in production in Q4 (see ‘Top operators’).

 

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

 

 

 

This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates, and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that started producing in a certain quarter.

The cumulative production of all individual wells is visualized in the 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’). Ten wells have now each produced more than 15 Bcf.

In the ‘Well status’ map you can find how all these wells are scattered over Pennsylvania, with the northeast and southwest corners making up the lion share. You can use the Operator filter to see this map for individual operators, and tooltips are available to give more information about a certain area.

Next week I will posts on the Permian and the Eagle Ford, followed by a post on North Dakota.

Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

 

====BRIEF MANUAL====

The above presentations have many interactive features:

  • You can click through the blocks on the top to see the slides.
  • Each slide has filters that can be set, e.g. to select individual or groups of operators. You can first click “all” to deselect all items. You have to click the “apply” button at the bottom to enforce the changes. After that, click anywhere on the presentation.
  • Tooltips are shown by just hovering the mouse over parts of the presentation.
  • You can move the map around, and zoom in/out.
  • By clicking on the legend you can highlight selected items.
  • Note that filters have to be set for each tab separately.
  • The operator who currently owns the well is designated by “operator (current)”. The operator who operated a well in a past month is designated by “operator (actual)”. This distinction is useful when the ownership of a well changed over time.
  • If you have any questions on how to use the interactivity, or how to analyze specific questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

4 thoughts on “Marcellus (PA) – update through December 2017”

  1. The Marcellus production is bending over to the right and yearly declines are looking closer to vertical. Looks like they may become strained to fill the new pipeline capacity coming on. An in any case the pipelines will be loaded up with $2.70 gas. Not sure if the banks will keep hanging around the the next gas price increase.

    1. Log scales are very deceiving for people who aern’t used to them. The end of life is coming soon to most of the wells drilled prior to 2014. Only Mom and Pop stripper well operators will be able to make money off those. Increasing compression will be required, and then the abandonment process will begin. It was a great three years.

      1. Special observations for shale gas/oil production.
        If water production is low, then the cost is low.
        The head pressure will be able to restore a lot if the well is shut in for a couple of days or longer. The production/Psi well head pressure drop will increase significantly after 50% EUR, almost 5 times to 10 times the original IP period; And it is getting larger and larger at lower well head pressures. This long life time is almost the same as oil vertical shale gas wells.

        1. Nu
          I saw your comments at Seeking Alpha regarding CNX’s Deep Utica program.
          Their Marchand (Indiana county) well is flowing at 7,400 psi at outset. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
          Care to expand on your statements over there regarding the gas shows on the log report?

          XTO just drilled one Deep Utica in Indiana and one in Jefferson counties. No production data yet.

          CNX’s plan of drilling 1,600 Deep Utica wells in Pennsylvania is one of the bigger, under reported ‘shale’ stories in years.

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